2021 NBA Playoffs: Bucks vs. Hawks odds, line, picks, Game 4 predictions from computer model on 100-66 roll

The 2021 Eastern Conference finals continue with a pivotal Game 4 clash on Tuesday evening. The Milwaukee Bucks take on the Atlanta Hawks at State Farm Arena, with Milwaukee leading this 2021 NBA Playoffs series by a 2-1 margin. Atlanta won the opener, with Milwaukee winning the last two games by double figures. Trae Young (foot) is listed as questionable for the Hawks but is expected to play, with Bogdan Bogdanovic (knee) listed as probable. Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) is probable for the Bucks.

Tip-off is set for 8:30 p.m. ET in Atlanta. The latest Bucks vs. Hawks odds from William Hill Sportsbook list Milwaukee as a 6.5-point favorite, up half a point from the opening line. The over-under for total points expected is set at 218.5. Before locking in any Hawks vs. Bucks picks, be sure to check out the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned almost $9,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past two-plus seasons. The model is up almost $700 on its top-rated picks this season and entered the conference finals of the 2021 NBA Playoffs on a stunning 100-66 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread dating back to last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns. 

Now, the model has locked in its Bucks vs. Hawks picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting trends for Hawks vs. Bucks:

Bucks vs. Hawks spread: Bucks -6.5Bucks vs. Hawks over-under: 218.5 pointsBucks vs. Hawks money line: Bucks -270, Hawks +230MIL: The Bucks are 5-5 against the spread in the last 10 gamesATL: The Hawks are 5-5 against the spread in the last 10 games

Featured Game | Atlanta Hawks vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Why the Bucks can cover

Milwaukee has the clear talent advantage in the series, in part due to Atlanta’s injuries. Without De’Andre Hunter (knee) and with rotation wing Cam Reddish returning from a four-month absence due to an Achilles injury, the Hawks are without any top-tier wing defenders. As a result, Khris Middleton was able to generate great looks in Game 3, scoring 38 points and putting up 20 points in the fourth quarter alone. From there, Antetokounmpo has found success attacking the rim with vigor, averaging 30.7 points, 10.7 rebounds and 6.3 assists per game. 

The Bucks are scoring more than 1.18 points per possession despite mediocre 3-point shooting (32 percent), and they are averaging a ridiculous 62.7 points in the paint per game in the series. On the defensive end, Milwaukee’s size challenges any opponent, and the Bucks lead the NBA Playoffs 2021 in defensive rating, defensive rebound rate and free-throw prevention rate. The Bucks have the edge in rebounding and the transition game and, if their perimeter shots fall at a clip approaching their regular season level, Milwaukee should be in fantastic shape.

Why the Hawks can cover

The Hawks are playing some of their best defense of the 2020-21 season in the playoffs. Atlanta is allowing fewer than 1.1 points per possession, a sharp improvement from the 72-game regular season. In addition, the Hawks are holding the Bucks to just 32 percent shooting from 3-point range, and that comes after Atlanta was a top-three team in the NBA in 3-point prevention (34.9 percent) during the regular season. Nate McMillan’s club has been excellent at keeping the Bucks away from the free-throw line, allowing a 0.178 free-throw rate, and they were above-average in limiting free-throw attempts throughout the campaign. 

Offensively, it’s been more challenging for the Hawks, but this was a top-10 offense during the regular season, and they are limiting turnovers to just 12.7 percent of their offensive possessions in the series. Atlanta also has room to grow in its 3-point shooting after making 37.3 percent of its triples in 2020-21, and positive regression is in the offing for Bogdanovic, who is shooting 29.6 percent from three in the playoffs after making more than 43 percent of his attempts this season.

How to make Hawks vs. Bucks picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, projecting 221 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits over 50 percent of the time. You can only get this pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Bucks vs. Hawks? And which side of the spread hits more than 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks.


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