The Atlanta Hawks take the floor with their season on the line on Saturday evening. The Hawks trail the Milwaukee Bucks by a 3-2 margin in the Eastern Conference finals, with the series shifting back to Atlanta for Game 6. Milwaukee beat Atlanta by an 11-point margin in Game 5 on Thursday to take control of this 2021 NBA Playoffs series. Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee) is doubtful for the Bucks, with Trae Young (foot) listed as questionable for the Hawks.
Tip-off is at 8:30 p.m. ET in Atlanta. William Hill Sportsbook lists Atlanta as the 2.5-point home favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 216.5 in the latest Hawks vs. Bucks odds. Before making any Bucks vs. Hawks picks, be sure to check out the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned almost $9,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past two-plus seasons. The model is up almost $700 on its top-rated picks this season and entered the conference finals of the 2021 NBA Playoffs on a stunning 100-66 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread dating back to last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has locked in its Hawks vs. Bucks picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting trends for Bucks vs. Hawks:
Bucks vs. Hawks spread: Hawks -2.5Bucks vs. Hawks over-under: 216.5 pointsBucks vs. Hawks money line: Hawks -145, Bucks +125Milwaukee: The Bucks are 4-4 against the spread in playoff road gamesAtlanta: The Hawks are 4-3 against the spread in playoff home games
Featured Game | Atlanta Hawks vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Why the Bucks can cover
Milwaukee’s defense is elite but, despite some uneven moments, its offense has done its job in this series. The Bucks are scoring 1.16 points per possession in the five games and they have dominated near the rim. Milwaukee is scoring a whopping 59.6 points per game in the paint, and the Bucks are also putting up 18.8 second-chance points per contest. That is a result of the Bucks grabbing 34.5 percent of their own missed shots in the series, and that is a continuation of their elite offensive rebounding performances from the rest of the season.
Milwaukee is taking care of the ball effectively, committing a turnover on only 12.4 percent of possessions against Atlanta, and the Bucks are generating 2.17 assists for every turnover. On the defensive side, the Bucks are averaging 9.0 steals per game against the Hawks, forcing Atlanta into a giveaway on 14.7 percent of possessions. The Hawks are also scoring only 40.0 points in the paint per game and, even with the Bucks struggling to connect on their 3-pointers consistently, the math swings in Milwaukee’s favor given its shot profile and rebounding prowess.
Why the Hawks can cover
The Hawks are a potent offensive team and that was evident even in a Game 5 loss. Even without their offensive leader in Young, Atlanta scored nearly 1.18 points per possession, grabbing more than 35 percent of its own missed shots on the offensive glass and making 15 3-pointers. Bogdan Bogdanovic was the biggest key to that success, connecting on seven triples, but the Hawks have plenty of shooting. Atlanta actually has the better shooting efficiency metrics in the series, and the Hawks were a top-10 offense during the regular season in scoring 114.3 points per 100 possessions.
Defensively, the Hawks undeniably struggled in Game 5, but they held Milwaukee to just 88 points in the previous matchup and Atlanta has been excellent defensively through the prism of the full playoffs. Nate McMillan’s team is limiting the Bucks to a modest free-throw rate (0.204) and Atlanta has been effective in holding Milwaukee to less than 30 percent shooting from beyond the 3-point arc. Finally, the Hawks are a scorching 21-5 in their last 26 home games, and they should deploy a spirited effort with their season on the line.
How to make Hawks vs. Bucks picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, projecting 219 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time. You can only get this pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Hawks vs. Bucks? And which side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks.